Prospective Impacts of COVID-19 on Fertility and Mortality Rates in Bangladesh

Abstract

Background: Bangladesh is presently facing the austerity of the unique coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) despite various steps taken by the government including social distancing measures and lockdown to curb the epidemic. Objective: To assess the probable effects of COVID-19 on fertility and mortality rates in Bangladesh. Methods: Data from the Sample Vital Registration System 2018 (SVRS) have been used for analytical purpose. Pearson’s correlation coefficients along with test of associations have been performed using SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Science). Statistical significance has been determined as p-value ≤ 0.05. Results: Statistically significant strong positive correlation between TFR and MMR (r=0.98,p-value=0.00) and strong negative correlation between vaccination coverage and child mortality rate (r=-0.92,p-value=0.02) have been found. GDP is the key feature to assess the economic growth of a nation. A highly significant (p-value=0.00) regression coefficient of - 0.73 specifies that one-unit decline in GDP would result in 0.73 unit rise in MMR on average. So, as the COVID-19 existence extends in the country, the GDP will incessantly drop leading into greater threat of maternal mortality. A highly significant (p-value=0.00) regression coefficient of - 0.83 specifies that one-unit decline in GDP would result in 0.83 unit rise in CMR on average. Henceforth, the elongating COVID-19 existence in the country would result in unremitting GDP decline leading into higher hazard of child mortality.

Conclusion: Results of this study have presented an overview regarding the possible impacts of COVID-19 on fertility and mortality rates in Bangladesh. The status of fertility and mortality rates has been on improving trends before COVID-19 arrival, but COVID-19 would hold back the improvement for sure. Effective measures must be adopted and implemented immediately to safeguard maternal and child health for future.